A Dangerous Time: The State of Geopolitics 2024

By | May 25, 2024

Hi Everyone, 

I decided to do something of a “state of the world” talk, specifically regarding the current state of geopolitics in the world. Much of this turns around the current war in Ukraine, of course, but there are larger long-term trends at work. Most importantly, the inexorable rise of powers that now rival the United States-dominated world order — namely Russia and China. We can also throw in a few other nations such as India and arguably a few others. In any case, Russia and China are the biggest “problems” for the US world order, and this isn’t going to go away any time soon. 

I do a breakdown of the reasons Russia is clearly winning the military theater in Ukraine, what the dangers might be following a decisive Russian military victory over the Ukrainian army (once the strongest European army, by far), and the many strategic blunders of the United States over the last few years. And boy have they been serious. 

What we are seeing is looks like a potentially fundamental transformation of the global balance of power, something that in fact is very dangerous. That’s because the older power never wants to relinquish power and influence to the “New Kids on the Block.” In my view, this was a major factor behind the outbreak of the First World War and also the Second World War. And not just those two wars, either. You can go far back in history to see this pattern. 

Ultimately, I wonder if our world will be able to make a transition to a multi-polar global system peacefully, or will it only happen after another global conflagration? I sincerely hope and pray it can be done without a disastrous war. Or to put it more accurately, without the already disastrous wars escalating into a bona fide World War Three. 

Richard